Recent research conducted by Dr. Nguyen Phuc Canh, HAPRI's Senior Researcher.
The research offers a rigorous examination of the impact of two major international climate agreements: the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The study employed a difference-in-differences (DD) approach to analyze country-level panel data spanning from 1995 to 2018. This methodology allowed for an assessment of the impact of these agreements on several key indicators, including CO2 emissions, natural resource rents, renewable energy consumption, and electricity generation from both renewable and non-renewable sources.
One of the study's most striking findings relates to the Kyoto Protocol, which came into effect in 2005. The researchers found that this treaty led to significant improvements in environmental outcomes. Specifically, the protocol was associated with:
A 20% reduction in CO2 emissions and natural resource rents
A 36% decrease in non-renewable electricity generation
An 18% increase in renewable energy consumption
A 60% increase in renewable electricity generation
These results were further validated through robustness checks using system GMM estimates, indicating that the observed effects were likely not biased by dynamic endogeneity or confounding trends.
In contrast, the study's analysis of the Paris Agreement, which came into force in 2016, yielded less conclusive results. Using a DD specification with multiple treatment timings to address documented issues in interpreting average treatment effects, the researchers found no statistically significant impact of the Paris Agreement on most environmental outcomes, with the exception of a reduction in CO2 emissions.
This research contributes significantly to our understanding of international climate cooperation and its real-world impacts. By taking a broader view of environmental outcomes and examining both major climate treaties, the study provides a comprehensive picture of global efforts to combat climate change. The findings underscore the need for continued evaluation and potentially stronger implementation mechanisms in future international environmental agreements.
As global temperatures continue to rise at an alarming rate, this research offers valuable insights for policymakers and environmental advocates alike, highlighting both the successes and limitations of international climate treaties in driving the green transition.
KEYWORDS:
Kyoto Protocol
Paris Agreement
Environmental impact
Green transition
Emissions reduction
Citation:
Doan, N., Doan, H., Nguyen, C. P., & Nguyen, B. Q. (2024). From Kyoto to Paris and beyond: A deep dive into the green shift. Renewable Energy, 228, 120675. 10.1016/j.renene.2024.120675
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