On June 5, 2022, the fourth Vietnam Economic Forum was held, organized by the Government of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and the Central Economic Commission, with the theme “Building an independent and self-reliant economy in conjunction with deep economic integration in the new situation.” This marked the first time the national Economic Forum was hosted in Ho Chi Minh City, conveying a message of recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, which had severely affected the locality.

This year’s forum attracted over 1,000 delegates, serving as a platform for exchanging opinions and sharing perspectives among representatives from various ministries, central and local agencies, scientists, businesses, and representatives from several international organizations. The forum also featured the participation of Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh in the plenary session - high-level discussion. The discussions at the forum provided advisory input to the Central Economic Commission, the Politburo, and the Secretariat on major policies and strategies for socio-economic development in the context of the "new normal".

At this event, three articles from HAPRI were selected by the Central Economic Commission for publication in the forum’s proceedings. Of these, two were presented in the plenary session - high-level discussion (out of a total of 12 selected), and one was presented in Workshop 2: Development of the capital market and real estate market.

Summaries of the articles:

1. Vietnam’s Economy during COVID-19: Sectoral Policies

Authors: Vo Tat Thang, Nguyen Thi Hong Ngoc, Nguyen Thi Bich Hien, Nguyen Hoang Lan, and Truong Tran Minh Thu

COVID-19 has changed the operation of the global economy. To quickly recover the economy as COVID-19 is gradually controlled, countries need appropriate sectoral development strategies and policies in line with global context and trends. Using LQ matrix analysis and shift-share analysis, the article identifies several prominent sectors in Vietnam, including agriculture, processing-manufacturing, tourism, and commerce. Based on this and lessons learned from China, Cambodia, Italy, Israel, and Taiwan, the article proposes several corresponding policies related to the application of technology and high-quality human resources in post-COVID-19 economic sector development.

Full article link: (PDF) Kinh tế Việt Nam thời COVID-19: Chính sách ngành

2. Policy Choices for Ho Chi Minh City to Prepare for Future Shocks

Authors: Vo Tat Thang, Vu Ngoc Tan, Tran Thi Phu Duyen, Truong Hoang Dung

Developing a forward-looking development orientation in the new post-COVID-19 world context is crucial for Vietnam in general and Ho Chi Minh City in particular. Policies should aim not only to meet current societal needs but also to withstand and overcome potential future crises. The article answers two questions: (i) Which sectors should Ho Chi Minh City focus on developing to fit the new context, and (ii) what should the city’s authorities do to help businesses and workers adapt and recover after the pandemic.

Specifically, sectors that Ho Chi Minh City needs to focus on investing and developing in the coming period include warehousing transportation, science and technology, education, and healthcare. Additionally, the city should support businesses in developing input markets and consuming new products. The closure and lockdown measures adopted by countries have disrupted the global supply chain, leaving many countries and localities unable to quickly revert to domestic sources, which were insufficient to meet the sudden and significant demand.

Ho Chi Minh City also needs to pay attention to the quality of the labor market, where workers should have not only skills but also the ability and opportunity to change jobs and the option to move elsewhere for work. In a constantly changing world, humanity may face environmental, financial, health crises, or other unforeseen crises, and a sustainable economy capable of withstanding shocks can only exist in places where workers are skilled, protected, and given opportunities.

3. Economic Recovery Support through Bond Issuance

Authors: Vo Tat Thang, Nguyen Thi Hong Ngoc, Nguyen Thi Bich Hien, Nguyen Hoang Lan, and Truong Tran Minh Thu

Bond issuance is one of the methods of mobilizing capital for the state and local budgets, especially in the context of a large budget deficit due to spending packages and post-COVID-19 economic recovery programs. This study analyzes the correlation between influencing factors and forecasts the demand for bond issuance, as well as the value of successful bond bids in Vietnam for the year 2021. Combined with lessons learned from several countries around the world, it shows that Vietnam needs to continue building national economic strength to increasingly attract investors and strictly control debt obligations, borrowing only when there is the ability to repay.

Full article link: Hỗ trợ phục hồi kinh tế thông qua phát hành trái phiếu

With three selected articles, HAPRI directly contributes its opinions to the process of developing socio-economic policies of the Vietnamese Government in the new situation. In the future, HAPRI will continue with policy-driven research articles that are meaningful for the economic development of Vietnam.

Author: HAPRI team

Illustration by: Nguyen Thao